Lead time sits at the center of shortage risk, yet many plants still rely on a single promised day from the supplier card. When receipts arrive late, the card rarely updates, and planners keep working from hope rather than history.
Start with three dates that already live in most purchasing files: order placed, confirmed ship, and goods received. Sort by supplier and item family. The spread between promised and actual receipt becomes the range your dashboard should show — not a single optimistic number.
For groups with several plants, keep plant-level ranges separate at first. Averaging Bangkok and U Thong receipts into one figure hides the plant that keeps missing material for the night shift. Once each site has a stable range, you can compare suppliers across the group with clear caveats.
When you brief a dashboard commission, ask for a lead-time band chart with filters by supplier, item category, and plant. Pair it with a short list of orders still open past the upper band. That view gives buyers a concrete call list before the line stops.